This month we’re providing some macro perspective on the economic effects of COVID-19. Here’s what the experts are saying about the bigger picture…
- Looking at severe market declines from 1987, 1998, 2008, 2011 and 2015 shows that these selloffs typically have three phases. The first is a panic-driven waterfall decline marking a bottom (which we think we saw last week). The second phase is a prolonged series of sharp rallies and sharp declines as volatility remains high. That’s where we think we are right now. The third phase is a retesting of the primary low, which could still happen. Read more…
– Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist, Nuveen - As dramatic as this (COVID-19 experience) has been, I do believe that the economy will recover steadily, in part because this situation lacks some of the obstacles to
recovery of a typical financial crisis. Central banks are moving quickly to address problems in credit markets, and governments are now acting aggressively to enact fiscal stimulus. The speed and the shape of these policies are deeply influenced by the world’s experience during the global financial crisis in 2008. I also believe their actions are likely to be more effective and work more quickly since they are not fighting against the same structural challenges as they were a decade ago. Read more…
– Larry Fink, CEO, BlackRock - The recession of 2020 will likely be characterized by very high unemployment with the jobless rate possibly topping out above the 10.8% seen in 1982, thus setting a new post‐Depression record. … When the economy begins to recover in 2020, we expect a very sharp decline in the unemployment rate as it should be relatively easy to restart individual companies in the leisure, food services, transportation, hospitality and retail sectors. Read more…
–Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan
As always, we continue to believe that one’s circumstances and risk profile should determine the appropriate mix of investments, and not media headlines. Please contact us if you ever have any questions or concerns about your accounts or any news you hear.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, asset class, or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels. Information in this commentary is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.